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Sprint velocity calculator and backlog forecast
Enter the story points your team completed in its last few sprints. The calculator gives your average velocity, the points to plan for the next sprint after holidays and leave, and how many sprints the backlog takes, as a range from your slowest sprint to your best. It opens on an example team; replace its numbers with yours.
Your velocity and forecast
Plan about 20.2 points for the next sprint (16.6–23), with 92% of a normal sprint's person-days. At the average of 22 points a sprint, the 120-point backlog takes 6 sprints (12 weeks): 5 to 7 sprints between your best and your slowest sprint.
Enter at least one sprint's points as a number, such as 21, 25, 18.
Average velocity
22
Last 3 sprints
21.3
Median
22
Range
18–25
Velocity is the average of the sprints entered; the next sprint scales each column by the share of person-days available (92%).
Average sprint
Slowest sprint
Best sprint
Points a sprint
22
18
25
Points to plan next sprint
20.2
16.6
23
Backlog takes
6 sprints (12 weeks)
7 sprints (14 weeks)
5 sprints (10 weeks)
How to calculate sprint velocity
Sprint velocity is the total of the story points of every story the team fully completed in a sprint. A story that is 90% done counts for nothing: Atlassian's guide moves it to the next sprint and re-estimates its points for the work left. One sprint is noisy, so teams average several. Atlassian's example: sprints of 14, 16 and 15 points give an average velocity of (14 + 16 + 15) / 3 = 15.
Jira draws the same numbers in its velocity chart: for each recent sprint, a gray bar for the work committed when the sprint started, a green bar for the work completed, and a line for the average. It can count story points, hours, the number of work items or any numeric field. Whatever the unit, keep it the same across the sprints you average.
Adjusting the next sprint for days off
A sprint with holidays or leave has fewer person-days to spend. The calculator scales the average by the share of a normal sprint's person-days the next one has: (people × working days − days off) ÷ (people × working days). In the example, 5 people in a 10-day sprint with 4 days off keep 92% of the usual time, so about 20 points instead of 22.
This is an aid to the conversation, not the commitment. The Scrum Guide says the more the Developers know about their past performance, their upcoming capacity and their Definition of Done, the more confident their sprint forecasts will be. Atlassian likewise has teams commit from the average velocity and adjust for holidays and outside dependencies.
Forecasting a backlog or a release
Divide the points left by the points a sprint and round up: that is how many sprints the work takes. The average gives the likely answer; your slowest and best sprints give the range, which is more honest to share than one date. The weeks assume five working days a week.
Jira's velocity chart docs say it in one line: the more sprints, the more accurate the forecast. Re-run it after every sprint, and start over when the team changes, because a new team has a new pace.
What velocity can't tell you
The Scrum Guide mentions neither velocity nor story points. Scrum.org's glossary calls velocity optional and meant for use within the Scrum Team. Points are each team's own scale, so one team's 40 and another's are different amounts of work; comparing them across teams is one of the KPIs our engineering KPIs guide says to skip.
Velocity also counts estimates of planned work, not what shipped or how. For delivery, teams track DORA metrics and pull request cycle time. And now that coding agents write part of the code, Zest shows which agents and models each engineer uses, next to the pull requests they ship.
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There is no universal number, because each team sizes points on its own scale. Atlassian says new Scrum teams usually average 5–10 story points per person per two-week sprint. The useful comparison is your team against its own recent sprints.
How many sprints should I average?+
Several. Atlassian recommends averaging over multiple sprints, especially for new teams and teams that changed size or structure, and Jira's velocity chart averages the sprints it shows. Its docs put it plainly: the more sprints, the more accurate the forecast.
Do unfinished stories count toward velocity?+
No. Velocity counts only stories that are fully done. Atlassian's example: a story 90% done is not complete; it moves to the next sprint and its points are re-estimated for the work left.
Is velocity part of Scrum?+
Not of the Scrum Guide, which mentions neither velocity nor story points. Scrum.org's glossary calls velocity an optional but often used indication of how much of the Product Backlog a team turns into an increment in a sprint, tracked by the Developers for use within the Scrum Team.
